Yellow metal rangebound; buy on dips for a target of Rs 48,500

India Gold August Futures rose on June 30 tracking positive strength in international spot prices as fears over rising coronavirus cases around the world boosted demand for the safe-haven metal.

Bullion, with more than 12 percent gain, is on track for its best quarter since January-March 2016. Gold was also headed for its third straight monthly gain, said a Reuters report.

On the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX), August gold contracts were trading higher by 0.07 percent at Rs 48,280 per 10 gram at 09:20 hours. July futures for silver were trading 0.55 percent higher at Rs 48,390 per kg.

Gold and silver prices settled on a flattish note on Monday. The Spot Gold settled at $1,781.20 per troy ounce and silver settled at $18.06 per troy ounce with minor gains in the international market.

Due to strength in rupee both the precious metals were settled on a slightly weaker note in the domestic market. Gold settled around Rs 48,250 and silver also slipped below Rs 49,000 levels.

“We expect both the precious metals remain firm due to global uncertainty amid rising coronavirus cases, geo-political tensions and volatility in global equities. Gold is expected to hold support levels of $1,766/Rs 47,920, if prices sustain above $1,788/Rs 48,330 could extend the gains towards $1,800-1,814 per troy ounce /Rs 48,500-48,700 levels,” Manoj Jain, Director (Head - Commodity & Currency Research) at Prithvi Finmart Pvt Ltd told Moneycontrol.

“Buy on dip strategy will work for both the precious metals. Silver prices also expected to hold $17.70 per troy ounce /Rs 48,100 levels. If prices sustain above $18.10/Rs 49,100, it could extend the gains towards $18.24-18.40 per troy ounce /Rs 49,500-49,950 levels,” he said.

Trading Strategy

International gold and silver ended with small gains on Monday supported by a safe-haven appeal for the metal.

Technically, MCX Gold August contract traded in a narrow range where it closes above Rs 48,250 levels indicating to trade on sideways to bullish momentum upto Rs 48,550-48,760 levels. Support is placed on Rs 48,000-47,700 levels.

MCX Silver September traded in Rs 48,720-49,584 levels range where it has bounced from Rs 48,720 levels and closed on some negative note. Still, downside momentum to continue and prices can trade in a range of Rs 48,500-49,740 levels.

COMEX gold trades in a narrow range above $1,780/oz as support from rising virus cases, robust investor buying, choppy US dollar and increased US-China tensions is countered by gains in the US equity market and some upbeat economic data from US and China.

Gold may continue to witness choppy trade as virus risks are assessed and as price remains below the pivotal $1,800/oz level, however, the general bias may be on the upside due to persisting worries about the health of global economies.

Demand for safe assets amid concerns over rising new coronavirus cases across the world continue to support the bullish outlook of gold. Increased geopolitical tensions and a weak dollar also lifted the sentiments. However, investors may take a cautious note ahead of the key US economic releases scheduled this week.

Technical Outlook (London spot): Expect rallies to continue as long as prices stay above $1710. However, strong resistance is seen at $1,780 followed by $1,800 levels. The immediate downside reversal point is $1,664.

-Published on June 30th , 2020