Money Talks

December 25th,2020

Gold miners' production all set to rebound in 2021

Overall the highest 20 gold miners are projected to lose ~5% of their total 2020 gold output primarily due to the pandemic and related suspensions. In 2021 gold production is likely to rebound. Based upon mid-point outlook projections, production is going to be ~6% quite a revised post-Covid guidance for 2020..

The world’s gold mining industry faced unprecedented challenges this year caused by Covid-19 related suspensions that were major factors behind a clear production drop recorded in several regions. North America, South America, and Africa felt the best impact.

It was reported that Canada produced 1,160 Koz of gold in Q2 2020. This was significantly less (-22%) than 1,482 Koz mined in Q2 2019. Gold production in Quebec in Q2 2020 declined by a record 32% over Q2 2019 and output of alpha-beta brass in Ontario decreased by 17%.

The primary factor behind the assembly decline was both government-mandated and voluntary suspensions

To analyze a preliminary impact this pandemic has had on gold miners thus far, we checked out three reported indicators:

1. Pre-Covid gold production outlook

2. Revised “post-Covid” outlook

3. Most recent 2021 production guidance released by the top 20 gold mining companies that were ranked by the volume of gold projected to be mined out in 2021.

Only the companies which reported production results on a quarterly basis were considered. In cases where the companies released guidance within the low and high range, mid-point numbers were included.

In cases where the companies had not yet released their production guidance for the year, we considered pre-Covid 2020 plans for the 2021 outlook instead.

As are often seen from the chart below, the highest 20 gold mining companies planned to mine approximately 39,118 Koz of gold in 2020 before the emergence of Covid-19.

After suspensions were lifted, many affected companies have revised their respective 2020 production outlooks and as a result, this number has declined to ~37,291 Koz of gold.

Based on the mid-point outlook, the highest 20 gold miners overall are now projected to lose ~5% of their 2020 gold output primarily due to measures they need to be undertaken so as to prevent and mitigate negative impacts of the pandemic.

On the brilliant side, many gold miners have posted record gold output growth in Q3

2020 as they were wanting to structure for production lost during suspensions

As for 2021, the highest 20 gold miners decide to mine ~39,381 Koz of gold calculated because of the total of mid-points of their respective production outlooks, which is ~6% more than a revised “post-Covid” guidance for 2020.

As expected, gold miners with assets located within the regions with a mandated pandemic – related suspensions were impacted the foremost. Those companies are highlighted in gold in the table below.

Change in mid-point guidance, Top 20 gold producers.

Companies affected by Covid-19 the most are highlighted in gold. * Actual production data for the year ended June 30, 2020